Deadlock / Balance intelligence
Deadlock The Doorman
The Doorman stats, build items and patch history. Balance changes have receipts here.
Win rate
45.96%
Wins ÷ observed selections
Pick share
1.58%
Share of all hero selections
Observed selections
370,799
30 complete UTC days
Next nerf odds · estimate
3%
Uncalibrated entertainment model
Sample: 2026-09-17 through 2026-10-16 UTC · Normal mode, ranked + unranked, all ranks. Retrieved . Deadlock API. Observed matches only; not the entire player population. Refreshes hourly; upstream item statistics may be cached for six hours.
Daily performance
The Doorman win-rate trend
Read chart data
- 09-17: 45.84% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00.000Z
- 09-18: 45.69% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00.000Z
- 09-19: 46.18% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z
- 09-20: 46.00% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z
- 09-21: 45.77% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z
- 09-22: 45.88% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z
- 09-23: 44.91% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00.000Z
- 09-24: 46.60% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z
- 09-25: 45.95% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z
- 09-26: 45.35% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00.000Z
- 09-27: 46.28% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z
- 09-28: 46.03% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z
- 09-29: 44.73% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z
- 09-30: 45.20% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-01: 44.57% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-02: 44.81% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-03: 45.53% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-04: 45.87% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-05: 45.27% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-06: 44.68% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-07: 44.88% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-08: 46.46% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-09: 46.88% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-10: 48.72% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-11: 46.89% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-12: 46.33% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-13: 47.47% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-14: 47.17% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-15: 46.71% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-16: 45.56% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00.000Z
Source: Deadlock API · hero-stats, UTC day
Estimate, not insider information
Will The Doorman get nerfed?
Our next-balance-patch estimate increases with above-average win rate and pick share. It has not been calibrated against historical nerfs and is not a reliable forecast of Valve’s decisions.
z = −2.2 + 0.35 × (win% − 50) + 0.08 × pick share%
estimate = round(100 ÷ (1 + exp(−z)))Inputs: win 45.96%, pick share 1.58%. Minimum 1,000 observations; otherwise no reading. Patch history below is evidence, not an input to the estimate.
Build research
The Doorman build items
Most observed item purchases on The Doorman, not a recommended purchase order. Item win rates are affected by game length, upgrade paths and who can afford the item.
| Item | Win rate | Observations |
|---|---|---|
| Extra Charge | 46.36% | 313,868 |
| Mystic Expansion | 46.20% | 310,730 |
| Mystic Burst | 46.47% | 306,781 |
| Rapid Recharge | 47.08% | 296,455 |
| Tankbuster | 47.31% | 286,514 |
| Greater Expansion | 47.27% | 277,235 |
| Improved Spirit | 47.14% | 248,107 |
| Boundless Spirit | 50.37% | 208,890 |
The paper trail
The Doorman patch history
Every explicitly attributed change found in the 26 available archive entries. This is the available archive, not a claim of complete lifetime coverage. Linked-only announcements may omit change text.
No explicit The Doorman changes found in the available patch text.