Minor Update - 09-16-2026
- - Kelvin: Frozen Shelter base ability health regen now scales with spirit power (0.2)
Deadlock / Balance intelligence
Deadlock Kelvin
Kelvin stats, build items and patch history. Balance changes have receipts here.
Win rate
54.00%
Wins ÷ observed selections
Pick share
1.37%
Share of all hero selections
Observed selections
321,471
30 complete UTC days
Next nerf odds · estimate
33%
Uncalibrated entertainment model
Sample: 2026-09-17 through 2026-10-16 UTC · Normal mode, ranked + unranked, all ranks. Retrieved . Deadlock API. Observed matches only; not the entire player population. Refreshes hourly; upstream item statistics may be cached for six hours.
Daily performance
Kelvin win-rate trend
0–100%09-17 → 10-16
Inspect the recordHover or focus for values · tap to pin · Esc to clear
Read chart data
- 09-17: 54.12% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00.000Z
- 09-18: 53.63% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00.000Z
- 09-19: 54.14% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z
- 09-20: 54.83% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z
- 09-21: 53.95% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z
- 09-22: 55.20% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z
- 09-23: 54.73% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00.000Z
- 09-24: 54.94% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z
- 09-25: 53.68% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z
- 09-26: 54.45% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00.000Z
- 09-27: 53.69% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z
- 09-28: 54.41% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z
- 09-29: 54.30% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z
- 09-30: 55.10% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-01: 54.26% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-02: 53.95% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-03: 52.18% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-04: 52.31% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-05: 52.73% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-06: 54.54% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-07: 54.51% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-08: 53.36% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-09: 53.61% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-10: 54.08% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-11: 53.61% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-12: 53.97% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-13: 53.72% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-14: 53.98% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-15: 54.86% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00.000Z
- 10-16: 55.56% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00.000Z
Source: Deadlock API · hero-stats, UTC day
Estimate, not insider information
Will Kelvin get nerfed?
Our next-balance-patch estimate increases with above-average win rate and pick share. It has not been calibrated against historical nerfs and is not a reliable forecast of Valve’s decisions.
z = −2.2 + 0.35 × (win% − 50) + 0.08 × pick share%
estimate = round(100 ÷ (1 + exp(−z)))Inputs: win 54.00%, pick share 1.37%. Minimum 1,000 observations; otherwise no reading. Patch history below is evidence, not an input to the estimate.
Build research
Kelvin build items
Most observed item purchases on Kelvin, not a recommended purchase order. Item win rates are affected by game length, upgrade paths and who can afford the item.
| Item | Win rate | Observations |
|---|---|---|
| Extra Charge | 54.45% | 264,921 |
| Improved Spirit | 54.37% | 262,021 |
| Extra Spirit | 54.39% | 248,863 |
| Rapid Recharge | 55.73% | 231,325 |
| Extra Regen | 54.32% | 217,452 |
| Mystic Vulnerability | 55.64% | 215,978 |
| Boundless Spirit | 58.40% | 215,806 |
| Healing Booster | 54.33% | 205,662 |
The paper trail
Kelvin patch history
Every explicitly attributed change found in the 26 available archive entries. This is the available archive, not a claim of complete lifetime coverage. Linked-only announcements may omit change text.
Minor Update - 07-28-2026
- - Kelvin: Frozen Shelter cooldown reduced from 195s to 185s
Gameplay Update - 05-22-2026
- - Kelvin: Frost Grenade damage spirit scaling reduced from 0.7 to 0.6
- - Kelvin: When interrupted on Ice Path, it no longer creates an ice path below him and instead lets him fall to the ground
- - Kelvin: Arctic Beam DPS spirit scaling reduced from 0.5 to 0.38
Gameplay Update - 03-06-2026
- - Kelvin: Frost Grenade now impacts on Ice Path
- - Kelvin: Frost Grenade radius reduced from 6.5m to 6m
- - Kelvin: Frost Grenade cooldown increased from 20s to 30s
- - Kelvin: Frost Grenade now comes with 2 charges
- - Kelvin: Frost Grenade now heals in the base ability (60 + 0.9 Spirit Scaling)
- - Kelvin: Frost Grenade no longer has -40% Stamina regen reduction
- - Kelvin: Frost Grenade T1 changed from "+1 Charge" to "Increases damage and heal by +30"
- - Kelvin: Frost Grenade T2 changed from "Provides healing 80+1.5" to "Freezes stamina regen and -10s Cooldown"
- - Kelvin: Frost Grenade T3 changed from "+144 Damage and -30% Stamina Regen" to "Increases damage and heal spirit scaling by 1.0 and Radius by +2m"
- - Kelvin: Ice Path is now cancelled on Ability Button Press instead of Space
- - Kelvin: Ice Path cooldown increased from 46s to 50s
- - Kelvin: Ice Path incline/decline speed increased
- - Kelvin: Ice Path T1 changed from "+4 Sprint" to "+2 Move Speed and +35% Bullet Resistance on Ice Path"
- - Kelvin: Ice Path T2 increased from -17s Cooldown to -20s
- - Kelvin: Ice Path T3 now grants you +35% Spirit Power while on Ice Path
- - Kelvin: Arctic Beam visual clarity on VFX improved
- - Kelvin: Arctic Beam now lets you cast Frost Grenade and items while using it
- - Kelvin: Arctic Beam Max Fire Rate Reduction reduced from -35% to -20%
- - Kelvin: Arctic Beam Max Slow reduced from -40% to -20%
- - Kelvin: Arctic Beam spirit scaling reduced from 0.8 to 0.5
- - Kelvin: Arctic Beam cooldown increased from 25s to 28s
- - Kelvin: Arctic Beam T1 changed from "-7s Cooldown" to "Increases Move Slow and Fire Rate Reduction by -25%"
- - Kelvin: Arctic Beam T2 changed from "+33 DPS" to "+20 DPS and +0.6 Spirit Scaling"
- - Kelvin: Arctic Beam T3 now also reduces cooldown by 13s
- - Kelvin: Frozen Shelter can now be canceled first without canceling Ice Beam
- - Kelvin: Frozen Shelter is now 8m unit target, creates the dome around the center of both heroes. Can be self casted to create it around yourself.
- - Kelvin: Frozen Shelter duration reduced from 5.25s to 5s
- - Kelvin: Frozen Shelter T1 changed from "-35% Enemy Fire Rate" to "-25s Cooldown"
- - Kelvin: Frozen Shelter T2 increased from +1s to +1.5s
- - Kelvin: Frozen Shelter T3 now also dispels non-ult debuffs on cast (affects you and allies)
- - Kelvin: Frost Grenade radius increased from 6m to 6.5m
- - Kelvin: Frost Grenade damage spirit scaling reduced from 0.914 to 0.8
- - Kelvin: Frost Grenade T3 damage spirit scaling reduced from 1.0 to 0.9
- - Kelvin: Ice Path T2 increased from -20s Cooldown to -25s
- - Kelvin: Ice Path T3 now also grants +20 Spirit Power
- - Kelvin: Frozen Shelter T3 increased from 50 Health Regen to 65
11-21-2025 Update
- - Kelvin: Bullet Velocity reduced from 254 to 160
- - Kelvin: Frost Grenade base damage reduced from 74 to 60
- - Kelvin: Frozen Shelter T2 changed from "-45s Cooldown" to "+1s Duration"
- - Kelvin: Frozen Shelter duration reduced from 5.5s to 5s
Shop Rework Update
- - Ice Path: Reduced how sticky the Ice Path is for allies.
- - Arctic Beam: Fixed damaging enemies through thin walls.
Map Rework Update
- - Frozen Shelter updated to use triggers rather than cancel, to match behavior of other un-summons.
- - Fixed aoe abilities going through Frozen Shelter.
12-06-2024 Update
- - Kelvin: Fixed some issues with being unable to shoot over half-height cover.
- - Kelvin: Frost Grenade now also reduces Stamina Regeneration during the slow duration.
- - Kelvin: Frozen Shelter now created on key up. While the key is down an outline of the area will be shown.
- - Kelvin: Frozen Shelter cooldown increased from 127s to 130s.
- - Kelvin: Frozen Shelter T2 increased from -38s to -40s.